Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Todd Duffee
Mike Russow
61%
39%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
24
Age
Δ 9y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Duffee: 51 sig / 0 TD ·
Russow: 14 sig / 0 TD
Todd Duffee
Mike Russow
36
Sig strikes landed
33
80
Sig strikes attempted
61
51
Total strikes landed
53
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
87s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Todd Duffee
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Mike Russow
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34