Main
Light Heavyweight
Jason Brilz vs Rogerio Nogueira
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jason Brilz
Rogerio Nogueira
63%
37%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
35
Age
Δ 1y
34
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Brilz: 18 sig / 3 TD ·
Nogueira: 23 sig / 1 TD
Jason Brilz
Rogerio Nogueira
43
Sig strikes landed
39
93
Sig strikes attempted
97
71
Total strikes landed
59
2.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
273s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jason Brilz
"Hitman"
23-6-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
—
Blue corner
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34