Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Diego Sanchez
John Hathaway
55%
45%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
28
Age
Δ 6y
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sanchez: 24 sig / 1 TD ·
Hathaway: 84 sig / 0 TD
Diego Sanchez
John Hathaway
33
Sig strikes landed
38
66
Sig strikes attempted
81
48
Total strikes landed
56
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
125s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
John Hathaway
"The Hitman"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23