Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
TJ Grant
Johny Hendricks
73%
27%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
26
Age
Δ 0y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Grant: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Hendricks: 53 sig / 8 TD
TJ Grant
Johny Hendricks
40
Sig strikes landed
33
82
Sig strikes attempted
74
57
Total strikes landed
47
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
192s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
TJ Grant
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27