Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Marcus Davis
Jonathan Goulet
47%
53%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
37
Age
Δ 6y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Davis: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Goulet: 5 sig / 4 TD
Marcus Davis
Jonathan Goulet
32
Sig strikes landed
37
72
Sig strikes attempted
82
50
Total strikes landed
55
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
173s
Control time
179s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marcus Davis
"The Irish Hand Grenade"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
Blue corner
Jonathan Goulet
"The Road Warrior"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31