Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Joey Beltran
Tim Hague
43%
57%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
18-14
Career record
Δ 4 pp
21-14
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Beltran: 97 sig / 0 TD ·
Hague: 60 sig / 2 TD
Joey Beltran
Tim Hague
27
Sig strikes landed
36
56
Sig strikes attempted
68
50
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
160s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joey Beltran
"The Mexicutioner"
18-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
L1
Tim Hague
"The Trashing Machine"
21-14
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—