Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tom Lawlor
Joe Doerksen
9%
91%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Lawlor: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Doerksen: 44 sig / 0 TD
Tom Lawlor
Joe Doerksen
38
Sig strikes landed
43
98
Sig strikes attempted
98
54
Total strikes landed
71
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
161s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Tom Lawlor
"Filthy"
10-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
Joe Doerksen
"El Dirte"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33