Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Patrick Cote
Alan Belcher
57%
43%
Why
75"
Reach
75"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cote: 22 sig / 2 TD ·
Belcher: 27 sig / 1 TD
Patrick Cote
Alan Belcher
36
Sig strikes landed
37
72
Sig strikes attempted
82
52
Total strikes landed
54
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
124s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Patrick Cote
"The Predator"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Alan Belcher
"The Talent"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26