Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Kevin Ferguson
Matt Mitrione
38%
62%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 5"
82"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Ferguson: 5 sig / 2 TD ·
Mitrione: 44 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Ferguson
Matt Mitrione
30
Sig strikes landed
37
60
Sig strikes attempted
72
40
Total strikes landed
57
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
100s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kevin Ferguson
"Kimbo Slice"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
Blue corner
Matt Mitrione
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
82"
Stance
Switch
Age
32