Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Sam Stout
Jeremy Stephens
60%
40%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
26
Age
Δ 2y
24
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Stout: 70 sig / 0 TD ·
Stephens: 55 sig / 3 TD
Sam Stout
Jeremy Stephens
51
Sig strikes landed
65
139
Sig strikes attempted
147
80
Total strikes landed
73
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
157s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Sam Stout
"Hands of Stone"
21-12-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24