Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Koscheck
Paul Daley
14%
86%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Koscheck: 19 sig / 4 TD ·
Daley: 11 sig / 0 TD
Josh Koscheck
Paul Daley
25
Sig strikes landed
34
59
Sig strikes attempted
84
29
Total strikes landed
39
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.5
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
64s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh Koscheck
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
W1
Paul Daley
"Semtex"
40-15-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
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