Back to UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
🏆 Title fight Main Light Heavyweight

Lyoto Machida vs Mauricio Rua

UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 ·Bell Centre
Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Lyoto Machida
Mauricio Rua
63% 37%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Machida: 9 sig / 2 TD · Rua: 17 sig / 0 TD
Lyoto Machida
Mauricio Rua
44
Sig strikes landed
47
88
Sig strikes attempted
98
61
Total strikes landed
62
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
157s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Lyoto Machida

"The Dragon"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
Blue corner

Mauricio Rua

"Shogun"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28