Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Justin Wilcox
Shamar Bailey
57%
43%
Why
31
Age
Δ 4y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Wilcox: 62 sig / 2 TD ·
Bailey: 7 sig / 0 TD
Justin Wilcox
Shamar Bailey
35
Sig strikes landed
41
67
Sig strikes attempted
82
52
Total strikes landed
57
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
176s
Control time
133s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Justin Wilcox
"Silverback"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Shamar Bailey
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28