Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Zoila Frausto
Miesha Tate
49%
51%
Why
26
Age
Δ 3y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Frausto: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Tate: 15 sig / 3 TD
Zoila Frausto
Miesha Tate
36
Sig strikes landed
40
76
Sig strikes attempted
84
65
Total strikes landed
75
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
157s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Zoila Frausto
"Warrior Princess"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Miesha Tate
"Cupcake"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24