Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Cormier
John Devine
95%
5%
Why
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Cormier: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Devine: 2 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Cormier
John Devine
50
Sig strikes landed
38
105
Sig strikes attempted
93
75
Total strikes landed
49
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
192s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Daniel Cormier
"DC"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
John Devine
0-0
Career record
Age
32