Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Andre Galvao
Luke Stewart
58%
42%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Andre Galvao
Luke Stewart
33
Sig strikes landed
34
70
Sig strikes attempted
74
45
Total strikes landed
47
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
154s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Andre Galvao
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Luke Stewart
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox