Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Abongo Humphrey
George Bush
80%
20%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Humphrey: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Bush: 11 sig / 2 TD
Abongo Humphrey
George Bush
44
Sig strikes landed
43
98
Sig strikes attempted
101
58
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
134s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Abongo Humphrey
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
George Bush
0-0
Career record
Height
73"