Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lavar Johnson
Lolohea Mahe
69%
31%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Johnson: 59 sig / 0 TD ·
Mahe: 16 sig / 2 TD
Lavar Johnson
Lolohea Mahe
42
Sig strikes landed
42
105
Sig strikes attempted
95
60
Total strikes landed
63
1.1
Takedowns landed
2.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
125s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Lavar Johnson
"Big"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Lolohea Mahe
0-0
Career record