Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Yancy Medeiros
Raul Castillo
59%
41%
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Medeiros: 49 sig / 0 TD ·
Castillo: 22 sig / 0 TD
Yancy Medeiros
Raul Castillo
36
Sig strikes landed
35
73
Sig strikes attempted
74
50
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
126s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Yancy Medeiros
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
Raul Castillo
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox