Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Wayne Phillips
Eric Lawson
84%
16%
Why
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Wayne Phillips
Eric Lawson
38
Sig strikes landed
47
99
Sig strikes attempted
108
52
Total strikes landed
62
4.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
167s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Wayne Phillips
0-0
Career record
Age
27
Blue corner
Eric Lawson
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29