Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryo Chonan
Andrews Nakahara
67%
33%
Why
34
Age
Δ 6y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 2
Chonan: 50 sig / 1 TD ·
Nakahara: 33 sig / 0 TD
Ryo Chonan
Andrews Nakahara
38
Sig strikes landed
32
75
Sig strikes attempted
76
57
Total strikes landed
42
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
206s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ryo Chonan
"Piranah"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Andrews Nakahara
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27