Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cole Escovedo
Yoshiro Maeda
33%
67%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
29
Age
Δ 0y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Escovedo: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Maeda: 8 sig / 0 TD
Cole Escovedo
Yoshiro Maeda
37
Sig strikes landed
42
84
Sig strikes attempted
78
54
Total strikes landed
57
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
171s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Cole Escovedo
"Apache Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner
Yoshiro Maeda
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28