Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Katsunori Kikuno
46%
54%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
34
Age
Δ 5y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Hironaka: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Kikuno: 9 sig / 0 TD
Kuniyoshi Hironaka
Katsunori Kikuno
36
Sig strikes landed
38
82
Sig strikes attempted
79
52
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
179s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kuniyoshi Hironaka
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Katsunori Kikuno
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28