Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ikuhisa Minowa
Jimmy Ambriz
94%
6%
Why
34
Age
Δ 6y
40
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Minowa: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Ambriz: 11 sig / 3 TD
Ikuhisa Minowa
Jimmy Ambriz
57
Sig strikes landed
32
98
Sig strikes attempted
76
79
Total strikes landed
47
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
174s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ikuhisa Minowa
"Minowaman"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Jimmy Ambriz
"The Titan"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40