Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Barnett
Siala Siliga
93%
7%
Why
32
Age
Δ 7y
40
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Barnett: 15 sig / 1 TD ·
Siliga: 8 sig / 0 TD
Josh Barnett
Siala Siliga
44
Sig strikes landed
33
85
Sig strikes attempted
69
76
Total strikes landed
57
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
162s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Josh Barnett
"The Warmaster"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Siala Siliga
"Mighty Mo"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40