Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bibiano Fernandes
Joachim Hansen
76%
24%
Why
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 2
Fernandes: 41 sig / 6 TD ·
Hansen: 50 sig / 0 TD
Bibiano Fernandes
Joachim Hansen
39
Sig strikes landed
34
82
Sig strikes attempted
78
61
Total strikes landed
52
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
187s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bibiano Fernandes
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Joachim Hansen
"Hellboy"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31