Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Anthony Morrison
82%
18%
Why
25
Age
Δ 1y
26
19-5
Career record
Δ 19 pp
20-13
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mendes: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Morrison: 5 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Anthony Morrison
21
Sig strikes landed
9
47
Sig strikes attempted
40
44
Total strikes landed
35
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
4.0
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
301s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chad Mendes
"Money"
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 47: Bowles vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
L1
Anthony Morrison
"Cheesesteak"
20-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—