Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Pickett
Demetrious Johnson
19%
81%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
32
Age
Δ 8y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pickett: 25 sig / 10 TD ·
Johnson: 47 sig / 2 TD
Brad Pickett
Demetrious Johnson
30
Sig strikes landed
39
76
Sig strikes attempted
78
47
Total strikes landed
60
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
141s
Control time
193s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Demetrious Johnson
"Mighty Mouse"
0-0
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24