Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mike Brown
Manvel Gamburyan
76%
24%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
35
Age
Δ 6y
29
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brown: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Gamburyan: 11 sig / 0 TD
Mike Brown
Manvel Gamburyan
40
Sig strikes landed
25
119
Sig strikes attempted
60
58
Total strikes landed
31
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.7
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
181s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mike Brown
27-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
Manvel Gamburyan
"The Anvil"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29