Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Benson Henderson
Donald Cerrone
53%
47%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
26
Age
Δ 1y
27
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Henderson: 15 sig / 1 TD ·
Cerrone: 1 sig / 0 TD
Benson Henderson
Donald Cerrone
26
Sig strikes landed
24
52
Sig strikes attempted
58
42
Total strikes landed
36
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
170s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
40%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Benson Henderson
"Smooth"
25-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27