Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Urijah Faber
65%
35%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
24
Age
Δ 7y
31
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Aldo: 77 sig / 0 TD ·
Faber: 20 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Urijah Faber
32
Sig strikes landed
26
86
Sig strikes attempted
76
46
Total strikes landed
48
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.3
1.3
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
119s
Control time
225s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jose Aldo
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner
W1
Urijah Faber
"The California Kid"
36-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson
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