Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gerald Harris
Mario Miranda
82%
18%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
30
Age
Δ 0y
31
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Harris: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Miranda: 16 sig / 0 TD
Gerald Harris
Mario Miranda
27
Sig strikes landed
21
65
Sig strikes attempted
57
46
Total strikes landed
33
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
251s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gerald Harris
24-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
Mario Miranda
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31