Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Caol Uno
Gleison Tibau
37%
63%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
35
Age
Δ 8y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Uno: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Tibau: 22 sig / 1 TD
Caol Uno
Gleison Tibau
31
Sig strikes landed
38
67
Sig strikes attempted
87
47
Total strikes landed
54
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
162s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Caol Uno
"Uno Shoten"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
Blue corner
Gleison Tibau
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27