Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rob Emerson
Nik Lentz
27%
73%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
19-12
Career record
Δ 5 pp
30-12-3
W1
Current streak
D1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Emerson: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Lentz: 46 sig / 4 TD
Rob Emerson
Nik Lentz
24
Sig strikes landed
32
57
Sig strikes attempted
75
45
Total strikes landed
47
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
272s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rob Emerson
"The Saint"
19-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 109: Relentless
—
Blue corner
D1
Nik Lentz
"The Carny"
30-12-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
—