Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Roy Nelson
Stefan Struve
15%
85%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 12"
84"
34
Age
Δ 12y
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nelson: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Struve: 2 sig / 0 TD
Roy Nelson
Stefan Struve
28
Sig strikes landed
40
60
Sig strikes attempted
85
49
Total strikes landed
49
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
168s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
33%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
Blue corner
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
0-0
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22