Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nate Quarry
Jorge Rivera
15%
85%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
38
Age
Δ 0y
38
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Quarry: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Rivera: 29 sig / 0 TD
Nate Quarry
Jorge Rivera
34
Sig strikes landed
39
73
Sig strikes attempted
80
48
Total strikes landed
54
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
103s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nate Quarry
"Rock"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Open Stance
Age
38
Blue corner
Jorge Rivera
"El Conquistador"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38