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Kenny Florian vs Takanori Gomi

UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Gomi ·Bojangles Coliseum
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kenny Florian
Takanori Gomi
31% 69%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Florian: 51 sig / 1 TD · Gomi: 20 sig / 0 TD
Kenny Florian
Takanori Gomi
33
Sig strikes landed
37
78
Sig strikes attempted
76
48
Total strikes landed
54
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
118s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Kenny Florian

"KenFlo"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
Blue corner

Takanori Gomi

"The Fireball Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32