Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Paul Kelly
Matt Veach
56%
44%
Why
26
Age
Δ 3y
29
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Kelly: 47 sig / 0 TD ·
Veach: 4 sig / 1 TD
Paul Kelly
Matt Veach
35
Sig strikes landed
40
76
Sig strikes attempted
80
50
Total strikes landed
53
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
129s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Paul Kelly
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Matt Veach
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29