Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
DaMarques Johnson
Brad Blackburn
54%
46%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Johnson: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Blackburn: 59 sig / 4 TD
DaMarques Johnson
Brad Blackburn
46
Sig strikes landed
45
103
Sig strikes attempted
98
60
Total strikes landed
61
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
113s
Control time
213s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
DaMarques Johnson
"Darkness"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
L1
Brad Blackburn
"Bad Brad"
18-14-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
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