Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jon Madsen
Mostapha Al-Turk
77%
23%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
30
Age
Δ 7y
37
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Madsen: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Al-Turk: 20 sig / 0 TD
Jon Madsen
Mostapha Al-Turk
34
Sig strikes landed
32
65
Sig strikes attempted
67
47
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.0
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
208s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Jon Madsen
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Mostapha Al-Turk
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37