Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Nick Osipczak
Rick Story
43%
57%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
25
Age
Δ 0y
26
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Osipczak: 28 sig / 2 TD ·
Story: 31 sig / 3 TD
Nick Osipczak
Rick Story
34
Sig strikes landed
47
96
Sig strikes attempted
107
50
Total strikes landed
73
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
82s
Control time
238s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nick Osipczak
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
W1
Rick Story
"The Horror"
20-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Maynard vs Diaz
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