Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alexander Gustafsson
Phil Davis
53%
47%
Why
79"
Reach
79"
23
Age
Δ 2y
26
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Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gustafsson: 0 sig / 0 TD ·
Davis: 14 sig / 1 TD
Alexander Gustafsson
Phil Davis
29
Sig strikes landed
38
67
Sig strikes attempted
66
50
Total strikes landed
57
0.5
Takedowns landed
3.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
68s
Control time
253s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
W1
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
18-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 109: Relentless
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