Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Hughes
Renzo Gracie
97%
3%
Why
36
Age
Δ 7y
43
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Hughes: 70 sig / 0 TD ·
Gracie: 34 sig / 0 TD
Matt Hughes
Renzo Gracie
41
Sig strikes landed
29
80
Sig strikes attempted
65
59
Total strikes landed
39
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
124s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Matt Hughes
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
37
Blue corner
Renzo Gracie
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43