Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
BJ Penn
Frankie Edgar
34%
66%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Penn: 71 sig / 0 TD ·
Edgar: 61 sig / 1 TD
BJ Penn
Frankie Edgar
45
Sig strikes landed
56
101
Sig strikes attempted
104
57
Total strikes landed
73
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
119s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
BJ Penn
"The Prodigy"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29