Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mike Pierce
Julio Paulino
46%
54%
Why
30
Age
Δ 5y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pierce: 39 sig / 6 TD ·
Paulino: 17 sig / 0 TD
Mike Pierce
Julio Paulino
34
Sig strikes landed
40
72
Sig strikes attempted
81
52
Total strikes landed
58
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mike Pierce
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Julio Paulino
"The Dominican Demon"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34