Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Eric Schafer
Jason Brilz
39%
61%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
32
Age
Δ 2y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Schafer: 27 sig / 2 TD ·
Brilz: 70 sig / 3 TD
Eric Schafer
Jason Brilz
33
Sig strikes landed
36
76
Sig strikes attempted
67
49
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
150s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Eric Schafer
"Red"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Jason Brilz
"Hitman"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35