Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Brendan Schaub
Chase Gormley
50%
50%
Why
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Schaub: 25 sig / 0 TD ·
Gormley: 2 sig / 0 TD
Brendan Schaub
Chase Gormley
34
Sig strikes landed
34
68
Sig strikes attempted
67
48
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
103s
Control time
150s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Brendan Schaub
"Big Brown"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Chase Gormley
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27