Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Eliot Marshall
Vladimir Matyushenko
42%
58%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
30
Age
Δ 10y
39
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Marshall: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Matyushenko: 28 sig / 2 TD
Eliot Marshall
Vladimir Matyushenko
35
Sig strikes landed
36
80
Sig strikes attempted
69
50
Total strikes landed
55
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
135s
Control time
179s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Eliot Marshall
"Fire"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Vladimir Matyushenko
"The Janitor"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39