Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Duane Ludwig
Darren Elkins
26%
74%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ludwig: 1 sig / 0 TD ·
Elkins: 0 sig / 1 TD
Duane Ludwig
Darren Elkins
33
Sig strikes landed
37
94
Sig strikes attempted
79
45
Total strikes landed
54
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.6
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
103s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Duane Ludwig
"Bang"
21-15
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 108: Evans vs Silva
—
Blue corner
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26