Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Clay Guida
Shannon Gugerty
74%
26%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Guida: 14 sig / 2 TD ·
Gugerty: 1 sig / 0 TD
Clay Guida
Shannon Gugerty
38
Sig strikes landed
32
75
Sig strikes attempted
77
51
Total strikes landed
47
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
126s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
Shannon Gugerty
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28